Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.007383 0.008313 0.009317 0.010482 0.011798 0.013239 0.014938
2026-02-01 0.005776 0.007026 0.008486 0.010320 0.012564 0.015226 0.018631
2026-02-08 0.004953 0.006355 0.008084 0.010377 0.013347 0.017073 0.022120
2026-02-15 0.004315 0.005781 0.007671 0.010292 0.013845 0.018512 0.025140
2026-02-22 0.003935 0.005475 0.007536 0.010508 0.014702 0.020438 0.028928
2026-03-01 0.003451 0.004962 0.007054 0.010174 0.014737 0.021204 0.031134
2026-03-08 0.003092 0.004582 0.006708 0.009981 0.014923 0.022160 0.033653
2026-03-15 0.002770 0.004219 0.006347 0.009717 0.014961 0.022873 0.035839
2026-03-22 0.002644 0.004135 0.006384 0.010046 0.015910 0.025019 0.040405
2026-03-29 0.002502 0.004011 0.006345 0.010246 0.016664 0.026909 0.044713
2026-04-05 0.002381 0.003907 0.006325 0.010467 0.017459 0.028914 0.049371
2026-04-12 0.002207 0.003702 0.006124 0.010368 0.017708 0.030031 0.052607
2026-04-19 0.002062 0.003535 0.005976 0.010355 0.018112 0.031459 0.056551
2026-04-26 0.001904 0.003333 0.005753 0.010191 0.018239 0.032420 0.059750
2026-05-03 0.001799 0.003214 0.005661 0.010248 0.018758 0.034104 0.064413
2026-05-10 0.001681 0.003063 0.005500 0.010164 0.019006 0.035310 0.068270
2026-05-17 0.001618 0.003005 0.005501 0.010377 0.019823 0.037627 0.074470
2026-05-24 0.001484 0.002806 0.005227 0.010048 0.019573 0.037896 0.076632
2026-05-31 0.001381 0.002656 0.005034 0.009856 0.019572 0.038637 0.079802
2026-06-07 0.001278 0.002499 0.004815 0.009596 0.019410 0.039042 0.082301
2026-06-14 0.001253 0.002493 0.004887 0.009921 0.020458 0.041964 0.090372
2026-06-21 0.001215 0.002457 0.004897 0.010119 0.021258 0.044435 0.097688
2026-06-28 0.001180 0.002427 0.004916 0.010337 0.022116 0.047092 0.105650